The fragile balance in the oil market is at risk of renewed disruption as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East create fresh obstacles for crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Goldman Sachs, the gradual restoration of crude oil production from Persian Gulf countries—via the Strait of Hormuz—could be delayed if cross-border attacks continue, particularly following recent actions by both the U.S. and Iran after Trump’s latest statements.
Brent Surges Past $80 Amid Shipping Constraints
The renewed confrontation between Washington and Tehran pushed Brent crude above $80 per barrel yesterday (July 9, 2026), while vessel traffic in the region was significantly curtailed.
Production Remains Sharply Lower
As reported by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs estimates that Persian Gulf crude output in June remained about 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels. Although some previously idled facilities have resumed operations in recent weeks, analysts warn that any new disruptions to tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz could substantially slow the recovery process.
Strait of Hormuz Flows Drop to ~70% of Normal
Goldman Sachs notes that recent attacks have markedly increased transportation costs and risk, prompting caution among shipping companies and cargo operators navigating the strait. Oil flows through the region are now estimated at roughly 70% of normal levels—down from over 80% of pre-war volumes shortly after the maritime route resumed operations.
Two Possible Market Scenarios
Analysts at Goldman Sachs stress that the market’s trajectory will hinge largely on diplomatic developments. In the more optimistic scenario, continued U.S.–Iran talks—combined with enhanced maritime security assurances and a possible reinstatement of waivers for Iranian crude exports—could allow oil flows to gradually return to pre-crisis levels by late July.
In contrast, a breakdown in negotiations and further escalation—including new attacks on tankers—could severely restrict Gulf exports, intensifying upward pressure on global oil prices.