Geopolitical Turmoil in the Middle East and Putin Under Pressure

Faced with dilemmas on the sensitive geopolitical chessboard, especially now that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran—following 12 days of hostilities and U.S. involvement through airstrikes on Iran’s three key nuclear installations—appears fragile to many. These events have highlighted the volatile situation in the Middle East, raising serious questions about the extent of Russia’s influence in the region under President Vladimir Putin. The Russian ambassador to the UN stated at the Security Council that the U.S. had opened ‘a Pandora’s box,’ while Iran sent its foreign minister to Moscow seeking more help from Putin after the U.S. attack, delivering a letter. The U.S.’s siding with Israel, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggered strong reactions from Moscow, which opted for cautious and restrained movements, avoiding direct military support. While the Kremlin’s rhetoric condemned the attacks and called for de-escalation, the lack of concrete measures supporting Tehran has disappointed many in Iran, revealing Russia’s diminished influence in a region once considered a vital strategic ally. Some analysts suggest Moscow might reap short-term benefits, such as rising oil prices helping the struggling Russian economy, or diverting global attention away from the war in Ukraine. Relations between Russia and Iran improved significantly after the onset of the war in Ukraine in 2022, with Tehran supplying Moscow with unmanned Shahed drones, playing a critical role in military operations. However, Moscow has chosen to avoid involvement in defensive actions that could pit Iran against Israel. This reserved stance has frustrated Iran, which feels it is fighting alone against a powerful foe while Russia maintains distance. The Kremlin denies abandoning Iran, emphasizing its intention to continue cooperation. Despite this, providing critical air defense systems to Iran remains uncertain due to Russia’s pressing needs in its own war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow faces the challenge of balancing support for Iran with maintaining good relations with Israel, which has a significant military presence in Syria and remains neutral regarding Ukraine. The demographic factor of Russia’s large Jewish population also influences its choices. Additionally, Russia-US relations show signs of improvement following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, offering Moscow an opportunity to exploit divisions within the West concerning strategy toward Iran. Analysts note that Russia has lost much of its influence in the Middle East since 2022, with Iran no longer being the strong regional player it once was. Moscow appears primarily focused on its own stability and geopolitical gains, often at the expense of its traditional allies.