Fuels: Greece’s Strong Export Pillar Turns into a Weak Link

In April 2025, significant pressures were placed on Greece’s trade balance due to the sharp decline in fuel exports. This downturn impacted both the overall export figures and the specific balance. While non-fuel goods exports remained relatively stable, total goods exports dropped by 14.1% compared to April 2024. According to the Bank of Greece, non-fuel goods exports saw only a marginal decrease of 0.5%, while they increased by 2.6% in constant prices. This indicates that demand for non-energy Greek products remained positive in terms of volume and value. Conversely, fuels became the main negative factor for export performance. The specific fuel balance worsened significantly as the deficit rose from €309.2 million in April 2024 to €518.9 million in April 2025, marking an expansion of 68%. The deterioration suggests that fuel exports declined substantially. Greece, despite not being an oil-producing country, usually benefits from its strong refining activity and exports significant quantities of petroleum products. When international oil prices are high, Greek refineries operate at high levels, leading to a surplus in the fuel balance. However, the overall reduction in exports (-14.1%) cannot be attributed solely to the near-neutral performance of non-energy exports. Given that these decreased by only 0.5% and typically account for about 70% of the export mix, the remaining 30%—fuels—experienced a much sharper decline, estimated at over 45%. Possible explanations include the fall in international oil and refined product prices and reduced export volumes due to limited production or lower demand from traditional markets. Meanwhile, the overall goods deficit shrank compared to the same month in 2024 because imports contracted more than exports in absolute terms. The weakening domestic demand had a balancing effect but did not offset the damage from low fuel exports. In conclusion, April 2025 highlighted the pivotal yet vulnerable role of fuels in Greece’s export balance. Although the rest of the export base remains resilient, energy exports act as a volatile factor affecting external trade, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring of international energy markets and long-term diversification strategies.