Fitch’s Potential Upgrade: What It Means for the Greek Economy Today

A critical test looms as the international rating agency Fitch prepares to announce its updated credit rating for Greece this evening (16.05.2025). This marks the first report of 2025, with eyes on a possible upgrade for the Greek economy and its implications. Currently, Fitch rates Greece at ‘BBB-‘ with a stable outlook, an evaluation set in December 2023, marking Greece’s return to investment grade after over a decade. Since then, no changes have occurred. The stable outlook suggests that the credit rating is unlikely to change within the next 12-24 months unless significant data shifts occur. In its previous report, Fitch highlighted reduced public debt, ongoing fiscal discipline, and positive developments in the banking system but noted concerns about external shocks and long-term demographic challenges. Other major agencies have also shown positive moves in 2024 and early 2025. S&P maintains Greece at BBB- with a positive outlook, Moody’s upgraded to Baa3 in March 2025, and DBRS Morningstar raised the country to BBB earlier this year. A potential new upgrade by Fitch could enhance investor confidence in Greek bonds and local businesses, further reduce public borrowing costs, and improve access to international capital for banks and companies. However, long-term challenges like demographics, climate change impacts, stagnant real incomes, and high private debt remain key issues requiring continuous management.