Fitch Upgrades Greece’s Outlook to Positive – Confirms BBB- Rating

Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook for Greece to positive, while maintaining the BBB- rating, according to its latest assessment. The investment firm upgraded Greece’s economic outlook from stable to positive, highlighting that structural reforms, fiscal control, improved tax collection, and efforts against tax evasion have significantly transformed the country’s image. Specifically, the report notes that the overall surplus of 1.3% and primary surplus of 4.8% for 2024 exceed Fitch’s estimates. Given this strong position, Fitch predicts a continued budget surplus for 2025 and 2026 near 1%. A sharp decline in public debt is observed, with Greece achieving the largest post-pandemic debt reduction among Fitch-rated countries. Additionally, the €36 billion cash reserves (16% of GDP) are sufficient to cover all upcoming debt maturities over the next three years. Fitch forecasts that rapid debt reduction will continue in the medium term, with debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2030 under a baseline scenario. The report emphasizes Greece’s prudent and credible fiscal framework and underscores the government’s commitment to fiscal responsibility, aligning fully with the EU’s new fiscal rules. Fitch highlights Greece’s resilient economic growth at 2.3% in 2024, expecting it to remain above 2% in 2025 and 2026—well above the 0.4% average forecast for the Eurozone. The report also points to real income growth, employment strengthening, and continued investment increases. While Fitch remains cautious about potential ‘shocks’ in major European economies due to tariff impositions, it concludes that Greece is on a steady path toward economic maturity and international credibility.