Explosive cocktail for power prices in January: Political cold, sleepiness and blocking of Ukraine’s pipeline

An “explosive” climate and energy cocktail is expected to face Europe next month (January). Its ingredients are three: A colder – than usual – January, weak wind levels and the end of the Russian transit agreement through . Cold January and low supply in terms of solar and wind energy factors are expected to increase gas demand at the same time as the supply ( gas p.r.) will be reduced due to the Ukrainian-Russia conflict. Thus, prices of gas and electricity are expected to rise. CORVERSE More specifically, Bloomberg’s report says a sharp drop in temperature is expected in early January for most of the UK, France, Germany and the Nordic countries. The will be maintained during the month, according to forecast company Maxar Technologies. Snow is expected in the United Kingdom, according to Met Office data, with weather warnings valid for the beginning of the month. The combination of cold weather and weak winds has already prompted Europe to consume more of its natural gas reserves than usual for this time of year, with levels below 75%. A variation in atmospheric pressure, known as the swing of the North Atlantic, can cause these conditions to be maintained until February – when it is almost certain that Russian gas will not flow through Ukraine. “Related influences of sub-seasonal standards, such as the negative swing of the North Atlantic in early January, would indicate the risk of producing wind energy lower than normal in central Europe, southern Scandinavia and the United Kingdom,” said Matthew Dross (Matthew Dross), Maxar’s meteorologist. CORVERSE In Paris, temperatures may fall up to -1C (30F) on average in early January, 6C below normal level, according to Weather Services International data. This will push heating demand about 50% above the usual levels. Weather models show some possibilities for milder periods after this cold wave. Wind levels fell vertically across Europe in November, ejecting electricity prices as wind parks stopped producing large quantities of energy in the region. Although the bursts will be stronger than those observed this winter, so far there is a risk that the January wind levels will be below the long-term average, according to meteorologists. So are temperatures. “The highest pressure dominates the region around Greenland and there is an increased risk that it will affect cold bursts in Northern and Central Europe,” said Olivia Birch, a meteorologist of Atmospheric G2. “North and Central Europe may be on the coldest side of normal for much of January, which will also depend on the power of the polar turbine of the stratosphere”. Meanwhile, some parts of Europe will resist this trend, such as Italy, Spain and Greece. According to Maxar, in these areas temperatures will range close to or above long term averages. The southern oscillation El Niño, which determines whether the weather on the planet will fall within an El Niño or La Niña pattern, is currently quite neutral. Although there is a possibility of developing a patient La Niña from January to March, bringing theoretically colder temperatures, will probably not be an important factor that will worsen things. “With a weak La Niña only, the effects on Europe should be minimal,” Adam Doitty (Adam Doughty) said, a senior meteorologist at the AcuWeather forecasting company.