In a new post threatening a massive strike against Iran, former U.S. President Donald Trump escalated tensions just hours after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent statements. Yet according to a classified report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), even a large-scale military assault is unlikely to uproot Iran’s deeply entrenched theocratic regime, The Washington Post reports.
The NIC assessment—completed roughly one week before the U.S. and Israel launched their military campaign on February 28—examines multiple leadership succession scenarios in Iran. These include both limited operations targeting top officials and broader attacks against government and state institutions. In all cases, U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran’s religious and military establishment would activate pre-established continuity-of-government protocols—even if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed.
The report explicitly labels the prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition assuming power as “unlikely.” Most prominent dissidents have disappeared—through exile, imprisonment, or worse—over the past several decades. The NIC, composed of seasoned analysts, produces classified assessments reflecting the collective judgment of the U.S.’s 18 intelligence agencies.
Leadership transition in Iran appears to be underway under pressure from the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Formally, the Assembly of Experts—a powerful clerical body—selects the next supreme leader. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security apparatuses also wield decisive influence. Unconfirmed speculation points to Mojtaba Khamenei, the current leader’s son, as a possible successor—though no official announcement has been made.
Current and former U.S. officials say there is no evidence so far of mass popular uprising inside Iran—or of serious fractures within the ruling system—that could trigger a change in leadership. Analysts stress that as long as Iran’s religious and military elites remain unified, Washington’s ability to directly shape political developments inside the country remains severely constrained. Even as the regime struggles to project power beyond its borders, it continues to maintain tight internal control.