Euroxx Raises Target Price for GEK Terna to €28 with 53% Upside Potential

Euroxx has increased its target price for GEK Terna shares from €26 to €28, maintaining its positive outlook for the Group following the release of its 2024 results. According to its latest analysis, Euroxx forecasts an upside potential of 53%, setting a target for adjusted operating profits (EBITDA) between €700-800 million by 2028 based on secured projects. Euroxx Research highlights that GEK Terna is well-positioned to capitalize on infrastructure opportunities in Greece, offering an attractive valuation (EV/EBITDA 8.2x based on estimated figures for 2028). The contribution of Attiki Odos, integrated with the Group in October 2024, is expected to boost concessions EBITDA from €41 million in 2024 to €177 million in 2025, surpassing €200 million by 2028. Additionally, the Egnatia Odos highway is projected to contribute operational profits of €86 million starting early 2026. Including stakes in Olympia Odos, IRC, and Kasteli, total concession EBITDA is estimated to exceed €600 million by 2028. Despite temporary delays, the construction segment’s EBITDA doubled in 2024 compared to 2021. The Group boasts an unexecuted backlog of €6.9 billion, excluding BOAK and a €200 million railway project in Romania. This backlog is expected to be executed over a five-year horizon, generating annual revenues above €1.4 billion and EBITDA of approximately €140 million.