Europe is rapidly running out of jet fuel. According to Reuters, the continent has fewer than 30 days of supply left — the tightest coverage among major global aviation fuel markets — as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten further disruptions to supply chains.
Vulnerable Supply Chain
Countries including the UK, France, and Germany are especially exposed. Over recent decades, a wave of refinery closures across Europe has left the region heavily reliant on imported fuel — particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil transported via the Strait of Hormuz. That vulnerability has intensified following the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, which led to renewed closures of the strategic waterway.
Supply Gap Widens
Data from energy consultancy Energy Aspects, cited by Reuters and dated 18 June, forecasts a supply deficit of nearly 600,000 barrels per day across Europe in the third quarter. In contrast, the U.S. is expected to post a surplus of 116,000 bpd, while the Asia-Pacific region will see a surplus of 425,000 bpd.
European jet fuel stocks stood at 38 million barrels in early June — far below the 99 million barrels held in the U.S. That level translates to less than 30 days of demand coverage, the lowest among major fuel markets.
Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Risk
The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows aircraft fuel inventories were 10% higher year-on-year at the end of May, and refinery output rose by 30%. Still, analysts warn the buffer remains razor-thin — essentially just one month.
“We still expect some market pressure until August,” said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad Energy.
The European Commission has acknowledged the growing risk. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned in June that jet fuel stocks could become critically constrained by late summer, and confirmed Brussels would coordinate the release of national emergency reserves if needed.
New Suppliers Step In
Prior to the war’s escalation in late February, the Middle East supplied roughly half of Europe’s jet fuel imports. While African nations — previously almost entirely dependent on Middle Eastern supplies — faced steep challenges, they pivoted quickly: increasing imports from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, India, and Oman, according to shipping data firm Kpler.
Europe, meanwhile, has turned to new sources — notably Canada. In June alone, the continent imported 673,000 barrels of jet fuel per day from Canada, marking its highest-ever monthly intake from the country.