European Natural Gas on Track for Largest Monthly Gain Since 2023

European natural gas is heading for its largest monthly gain in nearly two years, driven by cold weather waves and faster-than-expected drawdowns in fuel inventories, causing market jitters. Futures contracts are up around 38% this month, according to Bloomberg data—the strongest rise since summer 2023. If the current daily pace holds, it could surpass gains seen during the energy crisis four years ago. While fears over supply and storage have eased slightly following a rebound in U.S. LNG exports, freezing conditions continue to sustain high demand across several European countries. EU gas inventories have fallen below 43%, nearing 20% in non-EU European nations—especially Ukraine and Serbia—and approaching 38% in the UK. January has proven volatile: surging consumption, U.S. production disruptions due to extreme weather, and Middle East tensions—including escalating threats from former U.S. President Trump against Iran—are adding upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, Trump announced on Thursday, January 29, 2026, a one-week ceasefire agreement with Russia ahead of an extreme cold snap hitting Ukraine. Dutch TTF March futures now trade above €39/MWh. These developments fuel uncertainty for February and March pricing—particularly in Greece—though wholesale gas prices remain marginally lower than December’s levels. In contrast, day-ahead electricity prices are easing across most markets, with Greece trading below €100/MWh and its January average at €109.6/MWh, down slightly from €110.04/MWh in December.