Erdogan’s Diplomatic and Military Ascendancy: How Turkey Gains Global Influence

Just 24 hours before the much-anticipated meeting in Istanbul regarding Ukraine, with the landscape still unclear about who will meet whom, Turkey once again emerges as a mediator. With precise diplomatic moves, contacts with major players, and an impressive upgrade of its military and political influence, Ankara is emerging stronger—both diplomatically and militarily—in a rapidly changing geopolitical arena. Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be capitalizing diplomatically on recent developments. Only a day after his involvement in Syria through Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s role, Turkey demonstrates it is not merely a passive observer. This movement was seen by many European circles as a ‘message’ to the EU that Turkey does not intend to remain outside European affairs, especially given developments in the Mediterranean and migration issues. In a statement following her communication with Erdogan, Italian Prime Minister Meloni thanked the Turkish President for contributing towards a negotiated solution to end the conflict and reiterated her hope that Russia—like Ukraine—would positively respond to high-level talks and accept an unconditional ceasefire lasting 30 days as a substantial peace gesture. Meanwhile, a high-stakes diplomatic thriller unfolds ahead of tomorrow’s (15.05.2025) crucial summit in Istanbul aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine. While Russian President Putin will send his loyal Sergey Lavrov, U.S. President Donald Trump plans to attend to ensure critical discussions. Despite waiting for Putin, Erdogan and Zelenskyy emphasize their readiness, while Turkey continues to position itself as a stabilizing force in Ukraine, having successfully mediated between Kyiv and Moscow and playing a key role in the Black Sea grain agreement. Turkey also exploits the power vacuum in Syria, where Erdogan maintains influence over opposition-controlled areas. Notably, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, reappears on the scene. Once pursued by the U.S., he now freely operates and reportedly has communication channels with circles close to Trump—an unimaginable development until recently. Additionally, Trump prepares to meet with Syria’s interim president Ahmad al-Saraa (al-Jolani’s official name) in Saudi Arabia. On a military level, Turkey continues exporting Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, Poland, Azerbaijan, and African nations while conducting joint exercises with Qatar and Pakistan, creating influence axes outside NATO. Today, Erdogan is no longer seen as ‘the unstable neighbor’ feared in Europe but as a player no one can afford to ignore.