The agony of international and above all, the European market today (07.07.24), as the second round of early parliamentarians takes place in . The main contenders of the first place in today’s elections in France are the far right “National Reconciliation” and the left “New People’s Front”. Sources of the German press from France say Macron’s policies have greatly improved Paris’ attractiveness as a place of establishment and, after Brexit, have also attracted many banks and funds from London. “There is no panic,” say the same sources, but no one expects there to be a new government that will continue this path consistently.” A right-wing nationalist government with a prime minister from the National Conspiracy would be very damaging to the country’s image, the same sources say. The left “New People’s Front”, on the other hand, would scare investors with their “radical tax proposals”. “The best scenario for which we can hope at the moment is the management of status quo”. Macron’s low popularity rates and the impending defeat of his party make it clear that the reform policies he has implemented in recent years have found no impact on voters. However, the economic figures show some successes, the French economy developed faster than the German economy and the unemployment rate declined significantly. French purchasing power also improved overall, despite inflation. Over the last five years, EY management consultants have declared France the most popular location for foreign investment in Europe. Macron made personal efforts to make the country more attractive: Just in May, he hosted top executives from around the world at the summit “Choose France” at the Palace of Versailles, where Macron managed to announce a record of investment commitments totaling 15 billion euros. It is not clear whether events like “Choose France” will have a future if the National Reconciliation joins the government, according to the same report. Structural reforms such as the reorganisation of the pension system could be overturned and new reform plans could not continue. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is loyal to Macron and is unlikely to hold this position for much longer, has already cancelled a planned reform of the unemployment insurance system that would further reduce the duration of benefits. “The business friendly Macron era is over,” says a well-netted lobbyist in the French business community. Before the second round of the parliamentary elections, there are two key possible scenarios: a possible government alliance between the far-right “National Conspiracy” and conservative-urban Republicans or a government of technocrats. “ None of the two options are ideal,” says the same sources and do not believe in choosing an alliance between the Socialists, the Greens and the Macron camp, which has also been discussed: “There is no common platform between parties in terms of content”. A Paris-based communications consultant, who is well aware of the meeting rooms of many listed companies, sounds a little more optimistic. “The French like to play with fire. But in the end, they remain reasonable,” he says. An expression of reason could be a unity government consisting of experts and non-partisan personalities. “Her head could be someone like Christine Lagarde as Prime Minister”, she says. This is an idea that has been repeatedly discussed in French economic circles – although it is not known whether the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) would even be available for this position. Markets have also regained some coolness in recent days. The French CAC 40 benchmark recovered part of its losses after the announcement of Macron’s new election. The risk premium requested by investors for French government bonds compared to German government bonds was again significantly reduced. “Since neither the right nor left margin will have a majority to implement extreme programs, the market scenario should be positive in the near future”, Mohit Kumar (Mohit Kumar), chief economist for Europe at the Jefferies Investment Bank. The attitude towards the European Union RN’s prospect of participation in the government has particularly alarmed Germany. There are great concerns that the German government could suddenly lose its second major ally alongside the threat of Donald Trump’s re-election to the US. Germany and France have a special responsibility for a united Europe, explained Germany’s federal foreign minister, Analena Burbock. “He cannot leave anyone indifferent if we, for example in the European elections, or our closest partner and best friend, are far ahead of a party that sees Europe as a problem rather than a solution.” Bardella recently faced fears of a radical government under the National Reconciliation with reassuring messages: he wants to rule “responsible” and lead France back to a “rational fiscal policy”. In response to the concerns expressed by Chancellor Olaf in Germany Salts, Bardella replied: “I respect French-German relations”. However, in the past, Lepin and other National Conspiracy politicians have repeatedly expressed their opposition to Germany. The far right party wants to reduce French payments to the EU budget. It critically tackles joint defence programmes with Germany and rejects EU trade agreements. Although the National Conspiracy retreated from its call to leave the EU and the eurozone years ago, its ideas of a “French electricity price” or a “national preference” for domestic companies contradict the rules of the single market. Thomas Michalski, a professor at the HEC business school in Paris, points to the limited scope for manoeuvre of a possible government of the National Conspiracy. Laws that would drastically change the role of France in the Schengen area or the single market should be passed not only by the National Assembly but also by the Senate, the upper chamber of the French Parliament. And National Confusion has no majority there. In addition, Macron will continue to influence the country’s course as president until 2027, he says. As National Conspiracy will probably need the support of centre-right MPs for a possible government, it will also have to “count” its demands. According to Michalski, however, the party should offer its supporters mainly on two points: strengthening purchasing power by reducing value added tax and increasing the number of people in the labour market. The xenophobic core of the former “National Front” continues to shine, especially in immigration issues, despite the “demonization” of the party by Lepen. In the southwestern French department of Ariège, National Conspiracy politician Michelle Alozi Michèle Alozy, who qualified for the second round, shared the following message on Facebook: “For a clean and safe France – all along with Zoran Bardella”. Other candidates also drew attention with racist or anti-Semitic statements. These outbursts are disturbing to the party’s leadership, which is trying to project a moderate image. Bardella admitted that there may be some “black sheep” among the National Conspiracy candidates, against whom he naturally wants to take action. After the National Assembly was dissolved, the party had made “mistakes in casting” for the new elections in the rush.