New projections by the Ministry of National Economy indicate that the Greek Social Insurance Fund (EFKA) will return to deficit as early as 2029—ending a 13-year streak of budgetary surpluses. The shift underscores the exhaustion of fiscal buffers built up in previous years. While the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (2026–2029) had forecast a surplus of approximately €1.1 billion for EFKA, updated estimates now point to a €362 million shortfall in 2029—and a widening gap of €1.27 billion by 2030, according to a report by Kathimerini.
A Structural Shift, Not a Cyclical Blip
This reversal is not temporary. Within just four years—from 2026 to 2030—the fund’s balance shifts by roughly €2.4 billion, reflecting deeper demographic and economic trends. At its core lies a growing mismatch between contributions and pension expenditures.
According to the Ministry of National Economy, pension spending is projected to rise from €35.43 billion in 2026 to €40.75 billion in 2030—a jump of €5.32 billion. Meanwhile, contribution revenues are expected to grow more modestly: from €20.49 billion to €24.31 billion, an increase of €3.82 billion. That leaves a €1.5 billion gap—almost fully accounting for the return to deficits by decade’s end.
Limited Fiscal Flexibility
State subsidies to social insurance funds remain largely unchanged—hovering between €15.9 billion and €16.2 billion throughout the period. Though significantly reduced compared to pre-bailout levels, this support remains among the highest in the European Union. Yet it offers no additional cushion against mounting pressures—reflecting constraints imposed by the EU’s new fiscal framework, which limits permanent public spending.
The Demographic Reality Behind the Numbers
Beneath these figures lies a more profound challenge: Greece’s accelerating population decline and ageing. Eurostat projections—also cited in studies by the Institute of Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE)—forecast Greece’s population falling to 9.5 million by 2050 and approaching just 8.1 million by 2100. Shrinking working-age populations and rising dependency ratios are no longer abstract concerns—they’re reshaping the financial foundations of the country’s social security system.