Greece is facing one of the most severe demographic crises in its modern history. A steep and sustained decline in births, coupled with population ageing and rising mortality, is shaping an increasingly precarious demographic future.
Staggering Drop in Births
According to analyses by the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM) and comments by Professor Vyrōnas Kotzamanis — IDEM’s director and Professor of Demography — annual births in Greece have plummeted. The average stood at 117,600 per year between 2008 and 2009; by 2025–2026, that figure is projected to fall to approximately 65,000 — a 44% decline. At the same time, the average age at which women give birth continues to rise: from 30.2 and 30.3 years in 2008 and 2009, respectively, to 32.2 and 32.3 years in 2025 and 2026.
Root Causes: Falling Fertility and Shrinking Cohorts
This long-term decline — which began in the early 1980s and only briefly reversed between 2003 and 2009 — stems primarily from falling fertility among women born after 1960. Women born in the late 1950s had, on average, two children; those born around 1985 had fewer than 1.5. Compounding this trend is a sharp reduction in the number of women of childbearing age (25–44 years), which fell by 480,000 — or 28% — between 2008–2009 and 2025–2026.
This shrinking cohort reflects two interlinked factors: first, fewer people are reaching reproductive age due to the low birth rates that followed 1980; second, emigration over the past 15 years has affected not only native-born Greeks aged 25–45 but also foreign-born residents of the same age group who settled in Greece after 1990.
Evolving Patterns of Childbearing
Fertility indicators have also shifted significantly. The contemporary fertility rate — measured as births per 1,000 women — dropped from 1,500 in 2008–2009 to an estimated 1,240 in 2025–2026. Meanwhile, births outside marriage more than doubled, rising from 7,400 to 17,800 over the same period. An estimated 10% of all births now occur via assisted reproductive technologies, while 63% are delivered by caesarean section. Notably, about one in seven births during this period is attributed to foreign-born mothers.
Shifting Maternal Age Profile
The age distribution of mothers has changed dramatically. In 2025–2026, only 30% of births are expected to be to women under 30 — down from 43% in 2008–2009 and 78% in 1980. Conversely, births to women aged 40 and older have surged: from 4.5% in 2008–2009 to an estimated 11.2% in 2025–2026 — nearly tripling since the earlier period and more than sixfold compared to 1980, when it stood at just 1.8%.