Demand for Greek Fuels Declines, Widening Trade Deficit

A decline is observed in the demand for one of Greece’s primary export products—fuels—leading to a significant jump and placing a heavy burden on efforts to boost Greece’s outward-oriented economy and improve its balance of trade, which is essential for long-term fiscal stability. Data from ELSTAT reveals that the trade deficit expanded by 25.3% in March, partly due to slower import growth but mainly due to declining exports, with noticeable differences when fuels are included or excluded. Specifically, in March, export value fell to €3.935 billion compared to €4.295 billion last year, showing an 8.4% decrease. However, excluding petroleum products, the value increased by €203.1 million (6.7%) to €3.218 billion. This represents a drop in fuel exports exceeding €710 million. Despite being a non-oil-producing country, Greece ranks among the top 20 oil-exporting economies due to its refineries producing refined fuel products. Since the debt crisis, petroleum has become one of the country’s most valuable exports. During the 12-month period of 2024, petroleum and fuel exports saw the largest annual decline across all goods categories, dropping by 9.5%, while during the first half of 2025, there was a 1.9% fall in exports. Internationally, fuel demand reflects economic development dynamics; when economies slow down, it impacts global oil markets. Recent months have seen a downturn due to decreased demand and increased supply, exacerbated by OPEC+’s decision to triple production, driving oil prices down despite limited reductions at Greek pumps. Greek fuel exports struggle within this context of global economic slowdowns, compounded by Donald Trump’s trade wars intensifying uncertainty and pushing key importers like Germany towards recession. Additionally, exchange rate fluctuations have made European products less competitive, as the euro strengthens against the dollar, reducing the competitiveness of Greek refined products internationally. The decline in exports of Greece’s most dynamic product sends worrying signals about the economy, especially regarding trade balance equilibrium—a longstanding issue for public finances.