This week, DBRS Morningstar—the fifth and final major international credit rating agency—begins its second round of sovereign credit assessments for Greece in 2026. The firm is set to publish its updated evaluation of Greek public debt on Friday, 4 September—just one day before Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis delivers his government’s policy roadmap for the coming months at the 90th Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF).
Debt Reduction as a Key Catalyst
In its March 2026 review, DBRS explicitly identified sustained reduction in Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio—underpinned by strong fiscal performance—as a central factor that could support a future rating upgrade. It also underscored the importance of continued structural reforms aimed at boosting investment and long-term growth potential. At the same time, the agency maintained that Greece’s high public debt level remains a constraining factor for its credit profile—alongside relatively low productivity and external imbalances, including a current account deficit.
DBRS cautioned in March that while favorable macroeconomic and fiscal tailwinds are likely to persist through 2026, Greece’s economic outlook remains exposed to significant downside risks—including escalating geopolitical tensions. Specifically, the agency noted that an upgrade could be considered if public debt declines broadly in line with expectations over the next one to two years, and if the debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a stable downward trajectory over the medium term, supported by robust fiscal outcomes.
Stable Ratings So Far in 2026
Across the first half of 2026, all five major rating agencies—including S&P Global, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, and Standard & Poor’s—have reaffirmed Greece’s sovereign credit rating at BBB, the lowest investment-grade tier. Greece regained investment-grade status in 2023–2024 after more than a decade, and since then, most agencies—with the exception of Moody’s—have delivered further upgrades.
Geopolitical Pressures and Energy Markets
Since the March assessment, the macroeconomic environment has shifted markedly. Six months after the outbreak of hostilities involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran—and amid ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz—global energy markets have tightened significantly. Brent crude oil now trades near $90 per barrel, up from roughly $60 at the start of the year. In Europe, natural gas prices have more than doubled, reaching €68 per megawatt-hour on Thursday—up from €26.50 earlier this year.
Accelerated Debt Repayment
Greek Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Kyriakos Piersakakis recently announced early debt repayments totaling €12.8 billion. These measures are expected to comfortably exceed the 2026 budget target of reducing public debt to 138.2% of GDP—down from 145.9% in 2025. As a result, Greece is on track to overtake Italy as the Eurozone country with the second-highest debt burden—leaving Italy as the sole member with a higher debt-to-GDP ratio.
With debt stabilization now firmly in view, the focus shifts to sustainability: Can Greece maintain fiscal discipline while navigating external shocks and sustaining reforms that deepen competitiveness and resilience?