One man dominates his World Economic Forum, although he will not be there in person and he is no other than . While Republican Trump is sworn in today (20.1.25) as the 47th president of the US in Washington, an opening concert is in the program of the annual meeting of the political and business elite in Davos. CORVERSE It seems a little outdated, but the concert aims to draw musical attention to the danger of melting glaciers. At the same time, climate protection and sustainability pass to a second degree in the Trump era that is now beginning. The discussions at the World Economic Forum will already herald it, notes Handelblatt. When manager, politicians and investors from around the world travel to the Alps this week, interest will focus on the world’s diplomatic reorganisation and security, the economic explosion in the US and Asia fueled by artificial intelligence and the rapid increase in mergers and acquisitions. And from the beginning, it is clear that it is becoming increasingly difficult for Europe not to stay behind. This is already evidenced by a survey between dozens of chief economists by well-known research institutes and banks published in the event. According to the survey, 56% of them expect a deterioration in the global economic situation over the next 12 months. Only 17% expect things to continue to improve. CORVERSE However, estimates for regions are quite different: 44% of economists expect strong growth in the US, compared with 15% in last year’s research. Economists are also optimistic about Asia, with highly high expectations for India. The problem cases in the global economy are Europe and China. 74% of chief economists expect weak or very weak growth in Europe. They also expect China to lose its momentum in the coming years. Is Europe reacting to weak growth? Participants at the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Tuesday (21.1.25) hope for first answers to the question of how European politicians react to weak growth and how they are placed in relation to the high tariffs that Trump threatens: speeches are scheduled by European Commission President Ursula von der Leien, German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz (SPD) and Friedrich Murch (CDU), who is still in opposition. On Wednesday (22.1.25), the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, will also discuss, among other things, with Finance Minister Robert Hambeck, how Europe can fill the gap of development with the US. Trump would also like to impose higher duties on Chinese products. China’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ding Xuexiang could take a stand on this issue in Davos. Since China was not particularly represented at WEF last year, Beijing is sending a high-ranking representative this year. Ding is considered trusted by President Shi Jinping. The business elite is particularly interested in two issues: • How does China intend to solve its financial problems? • Are there any first messages from the new American government to prevent an excessively violent trade war? Ukraine must also prepare for significant changes in bilateral relations: President Volodymyr Selenskyj will also deliver a speech Tuesday. During his campaign, Trump announced that he could achieve a quick end to the war in Ukraine, but that he would cut off arms deliveries. All heads of state and government at WEF are united by the fact that they need to adapt to a new international order of things, says Borge Brente, president of the World Economic Forum. “Cooperation will increasingly be based solely on national interests,” he explains in an interview with Handelsblatt. Sandra Navidi, founder of the Beyond Global analysis company based in New York City, has a similar view. “Under Trump, most things will be based on personal relationships and on case-by-case agreements,” he is convinced. In the future, things will become “less predictable and no longer based on law and order”. Trump as the opposite of Davos’ spirit In Navidi’s view, Trump’s era is therefore a turning point for the World Economic Forum itself: “With its liberal, based on agenda values, WEF is Trump’s opposite”. For years, the event highlights the importance of global cooperation. “Trump, on the other hand, represents removal from constructive co-operation for the benefit of trade, bilateral agreements in which he highlights US economic and military power”. Trump’s attitude towards multilateral cooperation is also reflected in the presence of the American delegation at WEF: the newly elected president will only be linked via video Thursday (23.1.25). According to the organizers, high-ranking participants from his government are expected – but it is not yet clear who exactly will attend. However, technology companies leading to the American economic explosion are strongly represented. For example, Sarah Friar, financial director of OpenAI, as well as Nobel Prize winner and head of Google’s Deepmind artificial intelligence department, Demis Hasampis, is expected to attend. Artificial intelligence is a central issue in Davos, as the many posters “AI” show in many buildings of the walk. For a long time, technology companies were supporters of Democrats, but now they have largely advocated Trump. The heads of Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple will attend his inauguration in Washington as guests, while some of them have also donated money for the celebrations. Specialist Navidi says: “Trump has such a strong attraction that many CEOs unreservedly support him – for fear of being punished and to optimize their profits. They are morally agnostic and operate in a moral vacuum.” Wall Street could also be one of the great winners of a second Trump government. Last year in Davos, bankers were already surprisingly open-minded about a second term. Jamie Dimon, CEO of the largest American bank JP Morgan Chase, said last year: “If we take a step back and be honest with ourselves, he was somewhat right about NATO and immigration.” Dimon also believes Trump did well enough to stimulate the economy during his first term. “Trade and tax reform have worked”. In his campaign, Trump now announced a major deregulation attack, tax reductions and support measures for foreign companies that are increasingly producing in the US. “Things such as lower environmental protection and consumer protection and more relaxed banking regulation are de facto competitive advantages for the US,” Navidi explains. Ali Niknam, founder and CEO of the Dutch neobank Bunq, also hopes for an approach to business-based banking regulation. The German fintech N26 competitor has been working for a year to enter the US market. In view of global banking regulation, it requires: “The key is to find the right balance, ensure customer safety without hindering progress”. Investment bankers, on the other hand, hope to increase mergers and acquisitions. Last year in Davos, many were still disappointed by Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden: Democratic’s strict antitrust policy prevented many mergers and acquisitions. With Lena Khan’s departure, head of the FTC, Wall Street is now looking forward to a new era. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said last week when presenting his bank’s quarterly data: “There is overall greater appetite for agreements, supported by an improved regulatory environment”. This will have a positive impact on mergers and acquisitions and on the number of public records in the coming months.
Davos: In Trump’s shadow this year’s World Economic Forum
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