The situation in Iran is shifting rapidly, fueling intense uncertainty across political, economic, and social spheres. The trajectory of developments now hangs by a thread—dependent on the decisions and actions of unpredictable figures, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed leadership of Iran following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei.
Mixed Signals from Washington
On Monday, Trump sent conflicting messages—calling the war “short-term” and suggesting it could end “soon,” while simultaneously insisting it must not conclude until Iran “has absolutely no capability—over a very long period—to develop weapons that could be used against the United States, Israel, or any of our allies.”
What Comes Next?
Where do these developments lead—and what are the most plausible scenarios for ending the conflict? Specifically, what constitutes the best- and worst-case outcomes?
Military Campaign Requires Time
In any scenario, the military campaign is expected to take weeks to complete. As outlined by the Pentagon, the stated objective is to degrade Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders. This includes striking Iranian missile systems and production facilities, drones and drone manufacturing sites, naval and air forces, command-and-control infrastructure, and whatever remains of its nuclear program.
Degrading a nation’s military capacity is a distinct and sustainable military mission—separate from the political outcomes the U.S. and Israel hope to see inside Iran. Yet it takes time. Military planners are likely advising Trump that, while operations may be progressing ahead of schedule, completion will still require at least several more weeks.
Notably, Pentagon officials declined to discuss timelines during a Tuesday briefing, while the White House confirmed an initial timeframe of four to six weeks. As a planning assumption, it is reasonable to expect the military operation to continue for at least several additional weeks.
Economic and Political Variables
Scenario planning is only as strong as the data available at any given moment. Here, we assume the new Iranian supreme leader remains in power and that no further political upheaval occurs in Tehran. We also assume energy prices will stay elevated—even if ships resume passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
As long as hostilities persist along this vital global shipping corridor, economic ripples will be felt worldwide. Iran aims to intensify those economic pressures to influence Trump’s decision-making—seeking to force a halt to operations before its strategic capabilities are fully degraded.