Climate change: Heat and drought are increasing in Greece, 3 areas in ‘red’ – 10 regions and cities vulnerable to floods

2024 was the hottest year ever recorded for Greece according to weather data and is expected to be declared the hottest year worldwide showing the increasing challenges that . According to the weather data analysed by the climatebook’s scientific team, the average temperature in Greece for 2024 ranged above the average price of the 1991-2020 period at 77% of the days . CORVERSE “The highest temperatures and the strongest heats in Greece in recent years confirm an increasing trend that had already been identified since the mid-1990s and whose preservation in the future is now considered of course. Combined with temperature, the common occurrence of heat and drought is now being considered, namely one of the combined phenomena affecting the Mediterranean (a second example of a combined phenomenon in the Mediterranean is the common occurrence of seaburns and storms)”, explains Professor EKPA and a member of the Scientific Committee of the European Union for Climate Change, Constantine Kartalis, speaking to the AE-AE. According to Mr. Kartalis it is worth noting that the effects of a combined phenomenon are more pronounced as not only does the effects of the two individual phenomena that make it add up, but the effects of one reinforce those of the other, but they usually form feedback cycles that extend the duration of the combined phenomenon. Typical examples, as he points out, are the combined effects of heat and drought that have hit the Mediterranean in the last three years and contributed to forest fires – and in Greece – which have been extremely destructive. “Comparatively, and as the surface temperature in the Mediterranean has been increasing systematically over the last 40 years (about 0.4 degrees Celsius per decade ) more water vapors are produced -because of evaporation -also more – in the atmosphere due to rising air temperature (air temperature increase by 1 degree Celsius leads to increased water vapour retention by 7%). The result is to increase – however acute as drought increases in the same time period – the possibility of strong storms and flooding, especially in areas lacking flood-related projects and/or caused by environmental interventions. According to the European Environment Agency, in a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions – i.e. significant aid to Climate Change – it is estimated that storms moving slowly and characterised by high rainfall concentrations will be 14 times more frequent throughout Europe gradually by 2100 . Another World Weather Attribution showed that climate change in the Mediterranean makes extreme storm phenomena up to 10 times more likely to occur,” Mr. Kartalis notes. CORVERSE Increase in heat and drought – Ten areas vulnerable to floods As he explains, according to an EKPA analysis, there is an increase in days with heat and drought throughout the country (from 47 days for 1971 to 2000 to 150 for 2001–2023), although the biggest increases concern eastern Central Greece (Attica, Boeotia, Fthiotida), Crete and the islands of Cyclades. In terms of floods, as Mr Kartalis stresses, more vulnerable areas in climate conditions are Central Macedonia, a large part of Central Thessaly, Attica, smaller zones in the Peloponnese and Epirus and of course urban areas such as Athens (mainly along Kifisos), Thessaloniki and the cities of Thessaly, Peloponnese and Crete. “The most frequent occurrence in the Mediterranean, and in Greece, of combined phenomena marks a ‘warning’ for civil protection, as the climate conditions that are formed require new approaches to the resilience of the natural environment and infrastructure that will not only refer to each climate risk separately but will also respond to their combined occurrence,” Mr. Kartalis points out in the APE that they also require the redesign of early warning systems that should be geared to both combined phenomena and their effects. As he points out, these new approaches should be differentiated according to the geographical area and supported by changes in design (tourist, rural, urban planning, etc.) which currently corresponds to a climate that no longer exists and should therefore be adapted to the climate being shaped. ‘It should also lead to new synergies, e.g. that local urban projects currently being drawn up across the territory will not be exhausted in terms of construction but will support civil protection, for example by reducing density, volume and in particular the height of buildings in areas affected by heat waves, excluding from the construction of areas for which flood risk is increasing or by imposing resistance-enhancing projects in areas where construction may be permitted but estimates for the future indicate that they will be increasingly affected by drought and heat,’ he says. ‘Continued warming in the Mediterranean’ In 2024 he took the baton from 2023 shooting down in turn a record of temperatures both worldwide and for our country. In particular, according to data from the climatebook in June – July 2024 with an average maximum temperature of 31 degrees Celsius is the hottest in the chronicles of recordings in Greece by a large difference from the 2nd (2012). As the Research Director of the National Observatory of Athens, Costas Lagovardos, explains, the constant increase in temperature as well as the increase in frequency and intensity of intense weather events are problems that concern the Mediterranean. In particular, according to Mr. Lagovard, severe weather phenomena are recorded in autumn months due to intense cyclogenetic activity and the creation of barometrics low in the western and eastern Mediterranean. The second issue, as he points out, is high temperatures, which almost every year afflict the Mediterranean and especially large urban centres, where very high temperatures create difficult conditions, especially for residents of large cities, which temperatures remain very high at night. “The thermal charge is continuous 24/7. And in 2023 and 2024, in July of both years, very long heat waves were recorded, 15 days in 2023, 16 in 2024, the longest duration we have recorded in our country. It is very intense, so it is a burden on the inhabitants, especially in large urban centres where temperatures remain high and are one of the most important problems we will face because of climate change. The ever-long heats, the frequent occurrence of periods of very high temperatures and the heat burden that has a significant impact on our health and other sectors, such as agricultural production and ecosystems,” notes Mr. Lagovard and adds that these conditions, – prolonged heat and droughts – lead to very flammable forests thus increasing the risk of forest fires, which is a huge problem for the Mediterranean. “A little above normal levels for the January season” According to the data so far in the first 10-day – fifteen-day January, temperatures above normal levels will occur, but still cannot be estimated overall the month we are going through as Mr. Lagovard points out and emphasises that there will be a need for snowfalls and rainfall especially in areas of the eastern and southern countries such as the Cyclades, Eastern Crete, the Dodecanese. As Mr. Lagowardos explains, however, the increasing trend of temperatures continues “not all the years will be one warmer than the next”. “That’s for granted. But the trend is clearly up and down. With a large deviation in 2024 it was warmer than 2023 and 2022. Probably in 2025 it is a little more concentrated with lower temperatures in our country but the growth trend continues and this will be difficult to reverse,” he notes. ‘Early warning systems staffed by staff’ In the above challenges climate change equipment for civil protection with early warning systems and modern tools will contribute decisively to addressing its impact. “The early warning systems are tools to meet the challenges of the time. However, we need manpower, not just machinery, we need people. Interdisciplinary collaborations, collaborations between the bodies that anyone with his own expertise can give, add something to this joint effort,” points out Costas Lagovard and adds that the supply of radar networks is quite important but they need to be made up of human resources that can operate this equipment. “It is a very important step unquestionably but because we had seen a similar experience in 2004 the sequel was not proportional to the expectations we had. Many of them have stopped operating because they are very useful but they want people from behind, they don’t work on the autopilot,” concludes the research director of the National Observatory of Athens.