Business Insider: Likely scenarios, breakdown of.E.

The European Union’s future looks uncertain. As ideal and if it seemed like the, uh, Union of, at the beginning, gradual the countries they landed in reality. Already, it’s not easy securing an economic or monetary union between the member states, each of which implements its own fiscal policy.
Given the excessive public debt and of non-balanced budgets, the eu.E. Will be faced with two alternatives: to stay together, it should be restructured entirely the economic structure of the Union will be called upon to resolve the major problems of debt, while at the same time each country had to balance its budget. In the event that no agreement is reached on how to resolve the problem of debt, the split of the Euro area is possible, and the countries would return in their national currency.
To all this must be added the political tensions arising from the refugee crisis up to the possibility of Brtexit. It is a question of crucial and the way to deal with them will shape the future of Europe – united or divided – but also of the global economy. In particular, the following are the five largest risks facing the eu.E., as listed by Business Insider:
Risk No.. 1: The banking crisis in Italy As notes the newspaper, Italy will be probably the biggest “headache” for Europe, as the banking system is on the verge of collapse, because of the accumulation of non-performing loans, which represent approximately 20% of their assets.
In fact, in some of the banks of the southernmost part of the country, the problem loans reach a rate of 40%. The collapse of the Italian banks is a systemic risk for the whole of Europe, given that it is the eighth largest economy in the world.
Risk No.. 2: Possible failure in the management of the Greek problem, If compared with Italy, the Greek case seems more manageable, the refugee problem is a major issue, with the richest member in need of cooperation with Greece, in order to be able to cope with the difficulties that brought the refugee. Moreover, as noted, the country, in the last few years, is faced with the debt crisis and the insistence of Germany to the policies of austerity.
Risk No.. 3: The end of Schengen, The terrorist attacks in Paris, in November, contributed significantly to the reintroduction of checks at borders within the Schengen zone, many Europeans perceive as a threat to the safety of the entrance of muslim populations in Europe. A key role will be played by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel receives strong pressure for the policy stance on the management of refugee flows.
Risk No.. 4: An accession of Turkey to the E. E. The refugee has brought to the surface the possibility of inclusion of Turkey into the E.E. That desperate for a solution, waiting for the country to contribute to the containment of refugee flows. However, such a possibility finds the opposite Cyprus, which is an equal power with the other member of the E.E. And has the ability to veto an agreement that the rest of Europe has so much need.
Risk No.. 5: The Brexit Critical is, of course, and the referendum of June in Britain that will decide the future of the country. The impact of a possible exit of a member from the eu.E. Would have significant consequences for trade.
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