Bloomberg: The 3 Guarantees for Peace in Ukraine and the Kosovo Model

A peace agreement for Ukraine should draw lessons from Kosovo, according to an article by James Stavridis in Bloomberg. The Greek-American former NATO commander and retired admiral also emphasizes the need for three key security guarantees in any plan to end the war that has raged since 2022. As Stavridis writes, the blueprint for Ukraine should follow the Kosovo model, with robust security assurances covering sea, air, land, and cyberspace. First, Kyiv must be assured that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet cannot strangle its trade, especially agricultural exports and potash. Before the conflict, Ukraine was Europe’s breadbasket, and its ability to export grain and other goods through Odesa and other ports will be vital for its economy in any future peace deal. A permanent NATO naval presence—featuring two or three destroyers or frigates on standby, a similar number of minesweepers, and sufficient air cover including long-range maritime patrol aircraft like the U.S.-made P-8 Poseidon—would be essential. This force could operate from NATO bases in Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, mirroring the Alliance’s intervention 25 years ago to protect landlocked Kosovo by establishing a naval force in the Adriatic to prevent Serbia from receiving seaborne weapons. In the air, the most critical measure would be enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, jointly managed by NATO and Ukrainian fighter jets. With increasing numbers of U.S.-made F-16s arriving in Kyiv via European allies, such a zone could be implemented swiftly. NATO’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany could serve as command center, supported by 40 to 50 NATO aircraft, including patrol fighters and AWACS for command and control. The deterrent would include long-range cruise missiles like the Tomahawk, with a 1,500-mile range. Possession of such a missile arsenal would pose a serious threat to critical Russian economic infrastructure, particularly oil and gas systems. In Kosovo, NATO enforced a no-fly zone and used cruise missiles against targets in Belgrade, including the Ministry of Defense. On land, security guarantees would require deeper political coordination and sustained military support.