After the assassination attempt, observers estimate that he has more chance of being elected, which is expected to mean a shift in their international and internal economic policy, while their trade war with China and Europe is raging in the economic – political crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A campaign for presidential elections in the US, which has so far been characterized by harsh rhetoric, has turned into a real threat overnight. Presidential candidate Donald Trump, who was shot and wounded in the head by a 20-year-old gunman on Saturday night (13.07.24), will participate in the Republican Party conference in Milwaukee this week, as planned. Trump is to be officially declared as his party’s prevailing candidate there last Thursday (11.07.24). However, the US authorities announced increased security measures for the five-day event, in which thousands of Republicans and guests are expected – including several German MPs. American President Joe Biden is also more closely guarded, with additional security guards being ordered to the headquarters of his campaign in Delaware. The U.S. Department of Justice launched an official investigation into the attempted murder on Sunday night. This is an indication that the US government does not regard the perpetrator as an individual act of violence, but as a threat to national security. Attacks, riots and possible mimic attacks have not been ruled out by authorities, according to sources adjacent to the White House. The assassination attempt is a turning point in an already hot campaign: Biden and Trump are two enemies and their respective supporters are divided into incompatible camps. The attack is likely to further worsen this polarization. Within seconds, Trump’s concentration riot scenes spread to social media. At the same time, the charges against Trump’s political opponents are hot: “The central admission of Biden’s campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must stop at all costs”, wrote Republican Senator J.D. Vance, who is shown as a potential vice president candidate, on platform H. “This rhetoric led directly to the assassination attempt.” Republican MPs published similar comments on social media and attacked Biden. In fact, the American president has launched the campaign into a decision between democracy and autocracy: In his performances he regularly stresses that the November 5 election will judge the “soul of the nation”. The two candidates spoke by phone a few hours after the attack, but the White House did not disclose details. “There is no room in America for this kind of violence – this is sick, this is sick,” Biden said in a television address. The shooting against Trump now changes the campaign at many levels: 1. The shock of the event echoes The importance of an attack on a former president and presidential candidate is important. Apparently, the shooter didn’t hit Trump’s skull for just a few inches. In front of thousands of his supporters, the former president was dragged by a group of Secret Service agents from the scene. Shortly before disappearing from the field of sight, he turned to his followers and lifted his fist into the air. The blood ran on his face. The killer’s motive is still unknown, although theories are already online. So far there is no reliable information about the reasons, but regardless of motive, images will remain engraved in the collective memory of US citizens. Many of them have painful memories of previous assassination attempts, such as the assassination attempt of the then US president John F. Kennedy in 1963 and Ronald Reagan’s 1981 shooting. 2. Trump’s chances of election continue to rise “Trump just won the election”, said Republican MP Derrick Van Orden from Wisconsin. “This will activate the base more than anything else. Fight, fight, fight, with a raised fist – this will be the slogan,” added Republican MP Tim Burchett from Tennessee. Trump’s family and campaign campaign use the attack to direct Trump as a kind of witness. Donald Trump’s son Jr. published a photograph of his bloodthirsty father raising his fist in the air on X’s platform and commented: “He will never stop saving America.” The top right-wing conservative and evangelical organizations made mass prayers for Trump immediately after the attack and referred to him as “modern Cyrus” – referring to the ancient Persian king Cyrus, who was chosen by God to direct chaos. America’s religious right sees Trump as her savior and advocate of biblical values. More prayers are expected at the party conference in Milwaukee. The conference is expected to begin on Monday and Trump is expected to officially accept his party’s nomination and deliver a speech Thursday night – recent events are likely to fuel worship around him. At the same time, Biden’s campaign must mitigate charges against Trump out of respect for the facts. Just four months before the election, this is a setback from the point of view of political generals. Along with the Republican party conference, Biden wanted to conduct a tour of states in progress and focus on Trump as a threat to US democracy. Now he can communicate this message only in a degraded form. 3. Political violence and polarization could increase Political camps in the US could be further removed. A few minutes after the attack, the largest right-wing conservative American organization CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) accused left-wing US citizens and the media of causing the attack. In the US, sensitivity to political violence has increased in recent years. Elections and campaigns are part of the state’s so-called critical infrastructure. The Ministry of Interior provides several million to federal funds to strengthen security measures in electoral centres. Since thousands of Trump supporters invaded the Capitol on January 6, 2021, controls and police presence in political events have increased. In 2020 a terrorist network was spotted in the U.S. state of Michigan that wanted to kidnap Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer was spotted. Recently, protests at U.S. universities against the Gaza war, some of which were broken up by police. Almost four months before election day, the atmosphere between political camps is tense. The Supreme Court’s decision on immunity a few weeks ago is considered by critics as a plan for an autocracy in case Trump takes over the White House again. Trump himself tried to sabotage the result after the 2020 election, in which he lost to Biden. The fact that the climate in parts of the U.S. peaks was already seen Friday at a gathering organized by President Biden: “ Lock him up! Lock him up!” they shouted, implying Trump. The president reacted visibly. 4. Disbelief towards the State is increasing Trump thanked the Secret Service and law enforcement agencies for their immediate action, but added that “it is incredible that such an act can take place in our country”. In the past, Trump has described justice and government authorities as corrupt, for example after his conviction in the trial for the money he took to silence them in New York City. Some Republicans in Congress have already spread unfounded conspiracy theories that Biden “took orders” for the shooting. Trump himself had recently argued that the FBI had orders to shoot him. However, trust in institutions does not only collapse in the Republican camp, but has been declining across all party lines for decades. Biden, as chief, has received strong criticism that he is no longer able to respond to the job due to his advanced age and public omissions. Trump’s assassination attempt now accentuates the feeling that things have escaped control in the country. This is all unhealthy for the political climate. 5. Period and dash for the uprising against Biden Departments of the U.S. Democrats and several major donors want to replace Biden as the top candidate. However, the US president is determined to remain in the race. Numerous Democrats stated on Saturday (13.07.24) that the attack on Trump would lead to a dead end all efforts to succeed Biden. At least for now. “I think it is over,” said a strategic advisor to Handelsblatt. “The dynamics have been lost for now”. Once more is known about the perpetrator, the controversial issue of armed violence is likely to rekindle again. The US is the industrial country with the highest number of fatal shootings and amok worldwide. The weapons lobby is one of the most important economic supporters of Republican candidates in the election. The stricter background checks, which Trump also supports, are already mandatory in many U.S. states – but are often not consistently applied. Several murderers in recent years have been able to acquire a weapon, even though this should have been banned from them according to legal background checks. In some states, one can buy a gun before one can legally drink alcohol.