The demographic shift is fundamentally reshaping economies, labour markets, and democracies. ‘For the first time in human history, young people constitute a minority,’ says Aris Alexopoulos, Head of the OECD’s Crete Centre for Population Dynamics, in an interview with Newsit.gr.
A Global Challenge Rooted in Local Realities
Established in 2023 following an initiative by the Greek government, the Crete Centre is the OECD’s first international thematic centre dedicated to studying population dynamics — births, deaths, migration, and how these forces interact with economic development.
The name ‘Crete’ was chosen symbolically: the island lies at the crossroads of three continents and has historically served as a successful example of welcoming and integrating diverse populations. Interestingly, Crete — along with parts of the South Aegean and certain Cycladic islands like Paros — stands out as an exception to Greece’s broader demographic decline. There, modest birth-rate increases are not driven by cultural factors but by tourism-driven economic activity, which helps retain young people in their home regions.
A Worldwide Trend — Not Just Greek
Yet this is not solely a Greek problem. As Alexopoulos stresses, with only a handful of sub-Saharan African countries as exceptions, fertility rates are falling across the globe. The replacement fertility rate — the number of children per woman needed to sustain a stable population — is approximately 2.1. Greece currently sits at 1.3, on par with Turkey and India. China is already experiencing population decline, while South Korea’s rate has dropped below 0.7 — fewer than one child per family.
The main driver, he explains, is that childbearing has become a conscious choice, shaped by family planning and access to contraception. In Greece, opinion surveys show 57% of respondents say they’d like two children — yet the reality remains stuck at 1.3. Why? Because raising a child today resembles a marathon: demanding, prolonged, and financially intense.
Living Longer — Working Longer?
At the same time, life expectancy continues to rise. At the start of the 20th century, it stood at around 35 years; today it reaches 81–82. Babies born now are expected, on average, to live beyond 100 years.
In this context, Alexopoulos argues, the traditional notion of early retirement no longer holds up. A 60-year-old today bears little biological resemblance to a 60-year-old a century ago. Perhaps, he suggests, mandatory retirement ages should be abolished — allowing those who wish to remain active in the labour market to do so.
Technology, robotics, and artificial intelligence can support this transition, enabling older workers to focus on higher-level decision-making rather than physically demanding tasks.
The Numbers Tell the Story
The stakes are clear in the statistics: Greece’s working-age population (15–64 years) currently stands at about 6.8 million. By 2050, it is projected to shrink to roughly 4.5 million — a loss of nearly two million people.