Analysis: Why the US-Ukraine Mineral Agreement Likely Won’t End the War

After months of negotiations that almost reached agreement but collapsed at the last moment—culminating in the stormy meeting at the Oval Office in late February between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy—they finally signed the long-awaited economic agreement on minerals on Wednesday (April 30, 2025). The agreement includes the creation of an investment fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction, a country severely affected by the war raging for three years. Simultaneously, the U.S. secures privileged access to Ukraine’s natural resources. Signed on the 100th day of Trump’s presidency, this historic agreement strengthens Ukraine’s geopolitical position, entrenches American interests in the region, and shifts balances without signaling the end of conflicts, according to analysts. Despite this, Vice President Jay Dee Vans warned during a Fox News interview that tensions with Russia remain high. While many details remain unclear, the deal focuses on future mineral projects rather than existing ones, emphasizing long-term cooperation for Ukraine’s economic future. Although it doesn’t ensure immediate peace, it reinforces Ukraine’s stance against potential Russian aggression. The mixed reactions in Ukraine reflect skepticism among citizens, yet the Ukrainian parliament is expected to ratify the agreement within the next two weeks. Analysts agree that while significant, the agreement alone won’t bring an end to the war as it operates independently of any negotiations with Russia, which continues to reject U.S. ceasefire proposals.