Analysis: Netanyahu’s Gamble with Trump’s Gaza Plan

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s support for Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal is a high-stakes move that could win back estranged international allies and reinvigorate his domestic political base. However, it risks sparking conflict within his coalition, particularly with far-right partners opposed to any mention of a Palestinian state. Reuters describes the situation as a ‘double-edged sword.’ By aligning with Trump, Netanyahu frames the plan as advancing his government’s goals while shifting international criticism of the war onto Hamas. Trump has issued a new ultimatum: ‘Hamas has three or four days to respond’ to the Gaza proposal. Hamas is reportedly reviewing the 20-point plan and preparing its response. Domestically, embracing the plan could boost Netanyahu’s popularity by ending an increasingly unpopular war and securing the release of hostages—potentially improving his chances in elections expected within a year. However, the plan’s reference to Palestinian statehood may provoke strong backlash from nationalist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. The Trump proposal places pressure on Hamas, demanding full hostage release and disarmament in exchange for Israeli military withdrawal, contingent on deployment of an international force. Netanyahu emphasized continued Israeli military presence across most of Gaza without specifying a timeline. Smotrich dismissed the plan as ‘political illusions.’ A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute shows 66% of Israelis want the war to end. Former deputy national security adviser Eran Lerman noted Netanyahu risks coalition collapse but hopes to reshape public perception ahead of future elections. The opposition also calls for war’s end and criticizes Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s influence. Reports suggest Netanyahu will not present the full Trump plan to his cabinet, only the hostage-prisoner exchange component. Former diplomat Alon Pinkas believes he may prolong negotiations to survive politically and undermine the plan. Israel faces growing international isolation, with countries recognizing Palestinian statehood and imposing sanctions. Hamas, diplomatically weak, faces difficult choices. Netanyahu reportedly tried to remove references to a Palestinian state, but the document mentions an ‘credible path toward self-determination and statehood.’ Professor Neve Gordon of Queen Mary University, London, suggests Netanyahu likely believes he can win the next election—set by October 2026—if he delivers normalization deals with more Arab and Muslim states. Yet, even if he accepts Trump’s plan, Netanyahu could later distance himself and blame Hamas—a tactic he’s used before and one that might still strengthen his political position.