Agreement or election? These are the two scenarios for Tsipras…

A deal at the last minute, or early elections? These are the two scenarios….
that “play” 50-50 according to the analysis of the Institute of Brookings, which has the signature of the professor of Economic Analysis, Theodore Πελαγίδη.
As mentioned characteristics, the economy of our country would have rebounded if there was a political chaos…
Here are the two scenarios that have exactly the same probability of occurrence:
Scenario 1st
In accordance with the first scenario, agreement is reached at the last moment, leaving a relatively happy and the two sides. This means that there will be agreement on a technical formula for the application of preventive measures. At the same time, Alexis Tsipras will accept a specific road map for the restructuring of the debt, which basically means the extension of the repayment period. In this way, the problem is postponed for the future, however this is the policy, it is noted in the analysis. The problem in this case is again the IMF, which may have to insist on details concerning the substance of the preventive package of measures of € 3.6 billion. euro.
Scenario 2nd
In the second scenario, Tsipras announces a call for early elections, putting to the voters the following dilemma: “do you Accept the austerity measures the creditors or not?”. In this scenario, Tsipras will invite all the political forces opposed to the lenders to vote in favor of SYRIZA, rejecting the proposals of creditors. An item may, however, prevent him from such a choice are the low percentages in the polls, while a second is that many in SYRIZA do not want to fail in the negotiations and the elections are called.
In the same analysis there is a reference to how it was a dead end and underlined that the IMF is pushing for the extra precautionary measures in order to ensure that, with their participation in the program, Greece will fulfill the term of the agreement for a primary surplus of 3.5% by 2018. These are measures that can be activated automatically in the case that the Greek government fails to catch the objectives of the original agreement for a 5.4 billion. The Greek government rejected the precautionary measures.
The devil is in the details
As always, the devil is in the details, according to the same analysis.The key frictions are found in the already agreed package of 5,4 billion. with the Greek government intends to achieve its objectives through increasing tax revenue and creditors to prefer significant spending cuts.
In other words, the government aims to protect core voter, i.e. the civil servants and pensioners by refusing to cut public spending, while the creditors want to reduce what they perceive as a waste of public expenditure in order to increase the prospects of recovery. Any further cut expenditure on salaries and pensions will fully dissolve the already affected popularity of the government. This is the reason that the prime minister Alexis Tsipras insisted -and to an extent it worked – in tax increases, with regard to the package of 5,4 billion. euro. But this “success” is expected to come at the expense of a much needed development.

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