The Middle East conflict has reignited, ending the recent de-escalation between Iran and the U.S. — a development that has injected fresh volatility into global oil markets. Energy markets had enjoyed a brief respite, with numerous oil shipments passing safely through the Strait of Hormuz. But that calm is now over, replaced by tightening supply — particularly for refined fuels like gasoline and diesel, more so than for crude oil itself.
Crude Prices Rise Modestly Amid Shrinking Reserves
Oil prices reacted cautiously to the renewed tensions: on Monday, Brent crude traded at $77 per barrel — a level significantly lower than the $120 peaks seen earlier this year. Yet the underlying concern lies not just in price, but in dwindling inventories. Strategic and commercial onshore crude oil stocks have begun to decline globally and were not replenished during the month-long ceasefire. The result is an ironic situation: high prices previously coincided with high stockpiles, while today’s lower prices are paired with shrinking reserves.
Russian Export Ban Adds Pressure on Refined Fuels
A separate pressure point comes from Russia’s ban on fuel exports. As a major global refiner, disruptions at its facilities — increasingly targeted by Ukrainian drones — are having ripple effects far beyond its borders. These supply constraints are hitting gasoline and diesel markets especially hard across Europe and beyond.
Fuel Prices in Greece Defy Crude Trends
This imbalance is clearly visible in Greece. On Monday, unleaded gasoline sold for €1.97 per litre, while diesel stood at €1.84. Compare that to 9 June — just before the ceasefire — when crude was trading at $92 per barrel and gasoline cost €2.01. Today, crude is down to $77, yet pump prices remain stubbornly high. This disconnect reflects tightness across European and global fuel markets — not just in Greece, but continent-wide.
In response, the Greek government swiftly introduced new consumer support measures: a €0.10 per litre discount on gasoline and €0.05 on diesel, effective until the end of August.
EU Monitoring Amid Ongoing Concerns
Last Friday, the EU’s energy crisis task force convened to assess developments. Officials confirmed no immediate shortage of aviation fuel — a critical priority for the region — and noted that European refineries are operating at high capacity to meet demand. Efforts are also underway to secure alternative supplies from other global regions.
Gas markets tell a grimmer story. LNG deliveries from Qatar — already minimal during the ceasefire — have not improved. Greece’s state-owned natural gas company has extended its force majeure status with customers, signalling no near-term relief.
The EU continues to stress its goal of replenishing European gas storage ahead of winter — though the path to achieving it remains uncertain amid mounting geopolitical and logistical challenges.